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Tech won’t destroy your business, ignorance will
An argument and a story.
Michael Girdley
June 07, 2025
Hey everybody!
Today is all about taking the long view — what will your business be facing in 5 years? How about 10?
One friendly argument, and one story about some money that went down the drain.
I got into an argument recently about the future of technology. I’d love to hear your take.
Here’s what happened:
I was talking to an internet friend of mine who, by all objective means, is hugely successful. He took over an HVAC repair business that operates in multiple cities and scaled it up from a few million to hundreds of millions (or more) in annual revenue. (Here’s his profile, worth a follow!)
He basically said, “I’m not worried about tech disrupting my business. Somebody has to come out and fix your AC if it breaks.”
I disagree.
Because if there’s one consistent pattern across every business in history, it’s that sooner or later technology will change the landscape.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Chris’s HVAC business is going to be fine for a long time. But we’re seeing the early signs of the tech that will come for it — there are hundreds of startups building humanoid robots. And at some point those robots will fix air conditioners.
But it leads me to a bigger point, which is this:
Every business needs to pay attention to what’s happening in tech. You don’t have to be up to the minute, but you need to keep tabs on the big picture.
—
Different story — but related.
Ten years ago, I had a business that was way out in the country. And the only internet we could get out there relied on internet towers that used a line-of-sight type of radio wave to connect to a modem. We were paying $250 a month for internet that was worse than what I was getting at my house in town for $65. Additionally, the connection would go out if it rained.
Building those internet towers was a lucrative business for many people. They would go and build 10 or 20 towers in a rural area, then you’re getting excellent cash flow every month, because people have no other options to get online.
About three years ago, some financial friends of mine pooled investor money and wanted to acquire a number of these towers.
I had just read about Starlink, and asked them, “Hey, isn’t that going to be a lot better than these towers?”
If you don’t know Starlink, one of Elon Musk’s companies has thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit, so you can get high-speed internet from anywhere in the world.
As I saw it, my friends would soon have a competitor who could charge less and offer better service. It might even work in the rain.
At the time, these guys weren’t worried about it. Maybe they had their projections. Maybe they didn’t think Starlink would work. I don’t know.
What I do know is that, as of last I heard, several of those folks are divesting from those towers.
And I bet in 10 years, those businesses won’t even exist.
—
You’ve got to look down the road and ask: what’s going to change?
The world shifts faster than we think. And when you see an idea that might have a shorter shelf life — that doesn’t necessarily mean don’t do it. It just means go in with your eyes open.
If you know something might only last three or four years, you can build your plan around that. Get a good return, ride the wave while it lasts, and exit before the wind shifts. Maybe some of those tower-buying guys were thinking that way.
The only thing you shouldn’t do is close your eyes and hope.
Because the one constant in business is that the ground underneath you is going to move. Whether you plan for it or not is up to you.
—
3 things from this week
Appetizer: On Acquisitions Anonymous this week, Heather and I looked at a blue-collar t-shirt and sticker business for sale with a wild seller’s note — excerpt below. Give it a listen, and read the whole seller’s note (link in the video description).
It gets wilder than this.
Main: Here’s a controversial take. One of the biggest factors in a business’s success or failure is totally out of your control. Here’s what I mean, explained in 2 business stories and one extended bike riding analogy.
Dessert: A great way to go viral on Twitter: post a hot take and don’t explain it. (Though I did explain myself here.)
—
Thanks for reading!
What do you think about my argument with Chris? Are there any businesses out there that don’t have to worry about tech?
Michael
P.S. Please do come out on Thursday to my franchising talk. If you’re on the fence, this is the perfect way to learn more and ask questions. Totally free. RSVP here!
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