Hype is not product-market fit

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Hey everybody,

A few thoughts on marketing today. Specifically, how even the biggest hype machine in the world doesn’t guarantee success if you don’t have the necessary stuff figured out underneath. 

Let’s look at what you can learn from the fall of Prime Hydration. 

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You’ve probably seen Prime drink bottles a million times. They did a massive promo campaign on the backs of a couple of Logan Paul and KSI, two hyper-popular YouTubers, and they’re stocked pretty much everywhere these days.

But I bet you haven’t tasted Prime. 

And if you have, I bet you never bought it again.

Right off the bat, there’s a fundamental lesson: if your product sucks, marketing won’t save it. 

Sure, you can prop things up for a while. Silicon Valley is full of people are pouring fortunes into moonshot bets. Some of them work out.

But if you’re not building towards a product people actually want, you’re wasting your money. 

Sometimes your business can feel unstoppable. Customers line up, cash pours in, and your numbers are shooting up. 

In those moments, it’s easy to believe growth will keep compounding. 

But here’s the hard truth: people will give almost anything a first look if the buzz is strong enough. What actually matters for your business is whether people come back the second, third, or tenth time. By then, it’s not about the hype: it’s about the delivery.

Over time, the compounding effect of your customers sticking around longer is enormous.

Let’s say you spend $200 to earn a customer, they pay you $50/mo, and the average customer sticks around for 4 months. 

You’re breaking even.

Consider these two paths to improve your situation:

Both paths net you $50 profit per customer. But which one’s easier? 

(In case you don’t know: reducing CAC is brutal. But increasing retention could be as simple as a better onboarding flow, an extra CS check-in, or a key bug fix.)

At launch, Prime followed the Supreme playbook: the harder your product is to get, the more hype it gets. 

That can work for limited-run designer clothes that people wear as status symbols. 

It’s less effective for a $3 drink that tastes bad and will be available in every store 6 months later.

A bottle of Prime Energy has the same amount of caffeine as six cans of Coke. But it’s branding itself to kids. 

Schools banned it, regulators stepped in, and suddenly there’s a ton of drag on their momentum.

Prime bought UFC deals, sponsored Arsenal, and expanded across the globe before the core product was proven. 

Then they launched Prime Energy, on the same weak foundation. 

But hype can’t last forever. And when it slows, things tend to fall apart. In this case, retailers pulled back, suppliers got stiffed, and lawsuits rolled in.

It’s a classic mistake: scaling the illusion of success instead of the substance.

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The final word: if you’re selling a drink, don’t make it gross!

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Any Prime-lovers out there? I won’t out you. But I’m curious. 

Thanks for reading!

Michael

P.S. If you’re a manufacturing business owner, the guys at Scalepath are holding a one-day industry retreat this September in Atlanta, GA. Join fellow manufacturing owners from across the country to go on 2 large manufacturing facility tours, build some connections, and have a great time talking shop. More details here!