Hey folks,
I've been studying trends extensively, mostly because I want to play “easy” games where the world is changing in my favor. Instead, of fighting headwinds (which, frankly, totally sucks.)
The best thing for a business is to have a tailwind. In other words, when a business benefits from macro factors (demographics, economics, social trends, etc), you get to do things on easy mode.
Because there are no bonus points for doing things the hard way.
So here are 12 trends I’m betting on.
See if they give you any ideas on how to make some money from them.
If any of these get you thinking, come and ask me about them!
I’m hosting a Small Business AMA next Wednesday at lunch (Oct 8th). Join the live Zoom call, send in your questions, and let’s have a good time!
RSVP here, and I’ll send out the recording even if you can’t make it.
Trends I’ve noticed lately
The population is aging and living longer. The olds have the wealth. The young are disenfranchised and feel the American Dream is a myth.
Alcohol consumption is declining. THC is booming (up 1500%).
Young people are "growing up" more slowly than ever. They are delaying jobs, marriage, living alone, dating, and other life milestones more than ever.
→ By the way: I wrote up my thoughts last year on how to work with Gen Z — because once you unlock how they work, they’re amazing.
People aren't going out as much. The average American spends 70 minutes more per day at home than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic.
AI is creating business opportunities in the same way that the phone > radio > TV > PC > internet > and mobile did in waves over the past 100 years. However…
AI-enabled humanoid robots will come, but it's 10+ years until we see them widespread in public. Like self-driving cars, the VCs are way too optimistic about their use outside of safe sandboxes.
Globalization is reversing. More physical products will be built in the USA. More intangible products (software, services, talent) will be sourced from overseas.
→ Global talent is such a strong tailwind I built my company Near on it. Check out the sales team they just sourced for this Texas real estate company (added $20M ARR!)
Running a business is hard — your phone system shouldn’t make it harder.
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Inflation will continue, and it will affect the poor more and more. The only politically tenable way for China and the US to manage their debt is to print more money. So the rich (who own assets, not cash) will have more discretionary income.
People aren’t having kids (down 17% in the last 15 years) and getting married less and less.
More on this one: I saw some surveys about why. Seems like it’s (in this order): cost, too much work, haven't found the right partner, and "the world is going to end."
If there’s one lever that could change things, it’s housing prices. That has the most significant impact on the cost angle. But it seems like we’re headed in the wrong direction, and not likely to change anytime soon. Which complicates the next factor…
High housing costs make American workers increasingly expensive relative to international talent. If a job can be done online, it's likely to be moving overseas. (For me and my kids and my country, I hate this. We need to build more housing with less red tape driving up prices. Period.)
The shared traumatic event for Gen Z was COVID. Subsets of their generation will be changed forever depending on their age when it happened. For example, I know many kids who lost their high school years to COVID and are struggling significantly.
Fewer young people means the "supercenter" cities like NYC, LA, ATL, DEN, HOU, DFW, MIA, and SF will be even more desirable for them to relocate to for marriage markets and career ops. Be long these cities.
Those are mine.
When I posted this on Twitter a while ago, people chimed in with some interesting responses:
Climate change (this one’s obvious, don’t know how I missed it)
High electricity costs → alternative energy
Cancer rates going up
What do you think? Any of you building a business on these trends? Hit reply and let me know.
3 things from this week
The Acquanon pod covered this gym-for-kids franchise, with Heather and guest host Connor Groce. I don’t know how I’d feel about buying seven locations at a time. What do you think?
Panera Bread was so good for so long. Now one commenter calls it “expensive hospital food”. Here’s what happened.
What’s your take on nepotism? Has it changed in the last few decades?
Thanks for reading!
Michael
P.S. I’ve got some great lectures coming up! Check out the schedule (or grab the recordings from previous lectures) right here.
How can I help?
🌎 STAFFING → Hire with Near. Fortune 500-level talent, at prices any business can afford.
💸BUYING A BUSINESS → Acquisitions Anonymous. Podcast where we break down businesses for sale… 430+ episodes in!
⛷️OWNERS → HoldCo Conference 2026. Where business owners meet, learn, scale and grow at a stunning Utah resort. Feb 9-12.
💡Q&A → I host regular free lectures on all things business. Coming up:
Oct 8 — Small Business AMA. Just me! Bring it on!
Oct 15 — Secrets of Management w/ Dave Kline
Oct 29 — Buying a Business in 2026 w/ Chelsea Wood of Acquisition Lab
Nov 13 — Buy vs Build vs Franchise w/ Connor Groce
Jan 9 — How to Build Winning Remote Teams w/ Franco Pereyra
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